The latest PRG policy brief offers a concise but up-to-date assessment of one of the world’s most enduring flash-points. Beginning with the four interstate wars that shaped the sub-continent, the paper traces the evolution of “stable instability” through the Parliament (2001), Mumbai (2008) and Pulwama/Balakot (2019) crises, then dissects the April–May 2025 confrontation sparked by India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Particular attention is paid to the way nuclear deterrence, cross-border militancy and water security now intersect, raising both the ceiling and the frequency of tactical shocks.

The brief also places the dyad within its wider geopolitical frame. It explains how the United States balances its deepening security partnership with India against the need to retain crisis-management leverage in Islamabad, and how China’s $62 billion CPEC stake pushes Beijing to arm Pakistan even as it positions itself as a putative broker of stability. A concise risk matrix highlights the four variables most likely to trigger the next spiral: compressed nuclear decision-times, nationalist politics, gaps in cyber-and-air hotlines, and the weaponisation of river flows.

Against that backdrop, PRG proposes a four-step de-escalation agenda:

1. upgrading the DGMO telephone link to a tri-service secure-video channel and creating a bilateral Cyber Incidents Response Desk;
2. institutionalising U.S.–China co-mediation that leverages both CPEC equity and Indo-Pacific partnerships;
3. mandating a World Bank audit of Indus flow gauges to restore transparency; and
4. relaunching a “grand-basket” dialogue that bundles Kashmir, water management and terror-financing into a single negotiating track.